Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -150 HARV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -1.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -0.2 (-1.2) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -0.8 (-1.8) | 141.1 (+15.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -0.5 (-1.5) | 140.7 (+16.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -0.0 (-1.0) | 142.6 (+14.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | HARV 74 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#301) | -6.4 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#316) | -0.81 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#297) | -1.07 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#317) | 0.478 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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