Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -142 TNST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +25 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -4.4 (-29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -3.8 (-28.8) | 139.0 (-30.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -3.4 (-28.4) | 140.3 (-31.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.4 (-28.4) | 137.2 (-28.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.4 (-28.4) | 140.0 (-31.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UTM 96 – 87 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#199) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#181) | -0.06 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#186) | -0.49 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#162) | 0.535 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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