They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Ohio Valley Conference · Kathleen and Tom Elam Center · February 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UTM -2.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money UTM -142 / TNST +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTM win
Actual TNST +25 109 Lost
Massey UTM -4.4 (-29.4)
Massey Totals 144.0 (-35.0)
Bradley-Terry 60%
Weighted B-T 68%
Efficiency Plus ML UTM -3.4 (-28.4) 140.3 (-31.3) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML UTM -3.4 (-28.4) 137.2 (-28.2) 66%
Baseline ML UTM -3.4 (-28.4) 140.0 (-31.0) 67%
Baseline Plus ML UTM -3.8 (-28.8) 139.0 (-30.0) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 TNST 6855 UTM
Dec 19, 2025 TNST 7871 UTM
Feb 19, 2025 TNST 8675 UTM
Jan 22, 2025 TNST 8180 UTM
Mar 2, 2024 UTM 9687 TNST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTM TNST
Overall 22-11 23-10
Conference 13-7 15-5
Home 12-3 10-2
Away 8-6 10-7
Neutral 2-2 2-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.8 77.9
Avg Pts Against 64.7 75.1
Massey -1.9 (#199) -3.3 (#220)
Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#181) -0.06 (#169)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.30 (#186) -0.49 (#210)
RPI 0.509 (#162) 0.535 (#100)
Shooting & Four Factors UTM TNST
FG% 42.1% 44.7%
3PT% 30.9% 32.0%
REB / G 38.7 36.1
OREB / G 13.4 12.8
AST / TO 0.93 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 49.5%
TOV% 21.3% 16.2%
ORB% 37.8% 34.5%
FT Rate 26.2% 26.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.5% 52.3%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 19.8%
DRB% 68.2% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 31.2%

Game Analysis

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