Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -148 UTM +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -2.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.4 (+5.6) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.6 (+5.4) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+4.9) | 134.1 (+14.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.7 (+5.3) | 133.5 (+15.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UTM 96 – 87 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#221) | -1.1 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#126) | 0.34 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#157) | 0.10 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.503 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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