Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -250 TNST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +9 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -7.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -5.7 (+3.3) | 152.6 (+30.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -5.2 (+3.8) | 153.9 (+29.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -7.3 (+1.7) | 151.8 (+31.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -6.3 (+2.7) | 152.4 (+30.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#213) | -6.9 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#167) | -0.78 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#190) | -1.10 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#141) | 0.482 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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