Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -130 UTM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -0.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.4 (+11.6) | 136.2 (-13.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.1 (+11.9) | 135.8 (-12.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.7 (+11.3) | 133.7 (-10.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.3 (+11.7) | 134.7 (-11.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UTM 96 – 87 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | -2.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#159) | -0.21 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#185) | -0.44 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#94) | 0.509 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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