Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -155 TNST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +11 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -2.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.7 (-11.7) | 151.8 (+9.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.2 (-12.2) | 150.1 (+10.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.2 (-12.2) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.8 (-11.8) | 151.6 (+9.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UTM 96 – 87 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#276) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#295) | -1.29 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#295) | -1.78 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#259) | 0.453 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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