Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -120 UTM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -1.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.4 (+0.6) | 147.8 (+13.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -0.6 (+1.6) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.2 (-0.2) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.7 (+0.3) | 148.6 (+12.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UTM 96 – 87 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#293) | -5.9 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#330) | -1.16 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#327) | -1.62 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#341) | 0.451 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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