Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -192 PROV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -2.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -3.0 (-6.0) | 162.4 (-7.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -3.9 (-6.9) | 165.3 (-10.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.8 (-4.8) | 164.7 (-9.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -2.6 (-5.6) | 163.5 (-8.5) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PROV 91 – 87 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#80) | 8.7 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#79) | 1.00 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#74) | 1.60 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#108) | 0.505 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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