Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +140 CREI -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -3.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -3.1 (-7.9) | 138.2 (+10.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -2.7 (-8.3) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.9 (-9.1) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -2.6 (-8.4) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PROV 91 – 87 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#86) | 13.6 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#116) | 2.41 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#90) | 2.81 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#118) | 0.608 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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