Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -450 PROV +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -8.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -7.4 (+12.6) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -7.7 (+12.3) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -6.4 (+13.6) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -6.3 (+13.7) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PROV 91 – 87 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#53) | 6.2 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#51) | 0.74 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#53) | 1.33 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#39) | 0.545 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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