Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -450 PROV +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -7.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -6.8 (-11.8) | 141.3 (+9.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -5.7 (-10.7) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -5.7 (-10.7) | 141.7 (+9.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -6.8 (-11.8) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PROV 91 – 87 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#12) | 9.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#13) | 1.59 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#9) | 2.02 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#20) | 0.547 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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