Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +120 CREI -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -0.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.6 (+4.4) | 160.1 (+20.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -0.4 (+4.6) | 155.8 (+25.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.6 (+4.4) | 157.6 (+23.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.1 (+4.9) | 158.2 (+22.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PROV 91 – 87 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#79) | 11.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#99) | 1.83 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#89) | 2.48 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#118) | 0.584 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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