Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +110 CREI -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -2.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -0.0 (+4.0) | 144.8 (+33.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.6 (+5.6) | 144.6 (+33.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -0.5 (+4.5) | 143.3 (+34.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -0.6 (+4.6) | 145.4 (+32.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#51) | 15.9 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#69) | 2.09 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#61) | 2.78 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.597 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 10.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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