Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -325 PITT +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +16 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -7.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -7.0 (-23.0) | 142.5 (-14.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -7.8 (-23.8) | 141.6 (-13.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -8.1 (-24.1) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -8.5 (-24.5) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2025 | PITT 86 – 74 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-5 | 8-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#59) | 5.1 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#43) | 0.24 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#49) | 0.42 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#53) | 0.493 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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