Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1600 CAL +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -20.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -15.5 (-3.5) | 156.8 (+3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -17.4 (-5.4) | 158.5 (+1.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -19.5 (-7.5) | 157.2 (+2.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -18.8 (-6.8) | 156.4 (+3.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PITT 72 – 56 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#17) | 2.2 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#13) | 0.23 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#15) | 0.24 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#13) | 0.503 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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