Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -105 SMU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +20 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -4.3 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.6 (+21.6) | 151.4 (+18.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -0.9 (+20.9) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -0.5 (+20.5) | 151.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -0.7 (+20.7) | 153.3 (+16.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | STAN 73 – 68 SMU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SMU 85 – 61 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#73) | 15.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#59) | 2.27 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#67) | 3.14 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#67) | 0.598 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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