Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Stanford Cardinal
73 68
FINAL Conference
SMU Mustangs
Atlantic Coast Conference · Maples Pavilion · March 1, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread STAN -1.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money STAN -120 / SMU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total STAN win
Actual STAN +5 141 Won
Massey SMU -3.5 (+8.5)
Massey Totals 154.1 (-13.1)
Bradley-Terry 48%
Weighted B-T 41%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -2.6 (+7.6) 147.1 (-6.1) 48%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -1.4 (+6.4) 149.6 (-8.6) 46%
Baseline ML SMU -1.7 (+6.7) 150.3 (-9.3) 45%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -1.6 (+6.6) 148.9 (-7.9) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 STAN 9575 SMU
Feb 1, 2025 SMU 8561 STAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings STAN SMU
Overall 21-14 24-11
Conference 11-9 13-7
Home 17-3 13-6
Away 3-8 7-4
Neutral 1-3 4-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.5 79.9
Avg Pts Against 70.7 71.3
Massey 6.4 (#87) 13.1 (#40)
Bradley-Terry 1.39 (#69) 2.01 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.34 (#88) 2.36 (#53)
RPI 0.558 (#71) 0.573 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors STAN SMU
FG% 43.4% 48.3%
3PT% 33.5% 38.4%
REB / G 34.8 39.7
OREB / G 11.1 13.1
AST / TO 1.30 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 55.2%
TOV% 15.7% 17.3%
ORB% 31.7% 38.0%
FT Rate 24.9% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 47.2%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 17.2%
DRB% 72.9% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.6% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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