Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | HC -122 L-MD +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -3.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -2.3 (-16.3) | 146.9 (-8.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.4 (-16.4) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.4 (-16.4) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.4 (-16.4) | 145.9 (-7.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HC 86 – 78 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#320) | -11.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#335) | -2.07 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#332) | -2.62 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#341) | 0.411 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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