Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | HC -120 L-MD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | HC -1.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -0.9 (+7.1) | 132.2 (+31.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HC -0.3 (+7.7) | 133.5 (+30.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | HC -1.2 (+6.8) | 134.3 (+29.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -1.3 (+6.7) | 134.1 (+29.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-8 | 2-11 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#349) | -12.1 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#347) | -3.28 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.59 (#353) | -4.08 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#356) | 0.356 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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