Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HC -145 L-MD +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HC -3.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -2.6 (-0.6) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -3.1 (-1.1) | 139.8 (+6.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -3.4 (-1.4) | 137.5 (+8.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -2.9 (-0.9) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HC 86 – 78 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#275) | -5.8 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#109) | -0.75 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#148) | -0.90 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#106) | 0.461 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.