Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -165 HC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -4.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -2.7 (-5.7) | 135.4 (+1.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -1.9 (-4.9) | 136.7 (+0.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -1.7 (-4.7) | 138.0 (-1.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -2.2 (-5.2) | 137.4 (-0.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HC 86 – 78 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 2-11 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#341) | -14.5 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.15 (#355) | -2.72 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.95 (#358) | -3.60 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#359) | 0.371 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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