Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -218 HC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -2.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.9 (+8.1) | 142.6 (+13.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | L-MD -2.7 (+7.3) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | L-MD -2.0 (+8.0) | 140.1 (+15.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -2.1 (+7.9) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HC 86 – 78 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#315) | -10.6 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#332) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#332) | -2.47 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#318) | 0.410 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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