Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD -150 HC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -3.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.4 (-6.4) | 141.4 (-6.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | L-MD -2.0 (-7.0) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | L-MD -1.4 (-6.4) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -1.6 (-6.6) | 142.2 (-7.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HC 86 – 78 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#304) | -8.6 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#287) | -0.72 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#295) | -1.32 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#304) | 0.473 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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