Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -345 MAN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -10.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -8.3 (+1.7) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -7.9 (+2.1) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -8.7 (+1.3) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -8.9 (+1.1) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SPU 81 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#242) | -12.4 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#212) | -1.40 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#220) | -1.95 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#178) | 0.455 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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