Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -200 SPU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +1 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -4.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -3.1 (-2.1) | 132.5 (+34.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -5.0 (-4.0) | 133.9 (+33.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -4.9 (-3.9) | 133.8 (+33.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -4.7 (-3.7) | 132.4 (+34.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SPU 81 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#253) | -7.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#243) | -1.37 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#256) | -1.79 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#244) | 0.434 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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