Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +180 SPU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -5.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -5.4 (+0.4) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.1 (-0.9) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.3 (-0.7) | 141.3 (+13.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.7 (-0.3) | 143.6 (+11.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SPU 81 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#341) | -4.8 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#310) | -0.39 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#320) | -0.63 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#292) | 0.498 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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