Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -1000 MAN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +32 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -14.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -11.6 (+20.4) | 132.1 (+13.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -10.7 (+21.3) | 131.0 (+15.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -11.3 (+20.7) | 131.1 (+14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -11.3 (+20.7) | 130.4 (+15.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SPU 81 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#188) | -12.7 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#210) | -2.18 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#207) | -3.15 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#168) | 0.435 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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