Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -460 MAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -10.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -9.2 (-12.2) | 134.0 (+3.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -7.1 (-10.1) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.7 (-9.7) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -6.4 (-9.4) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SPU 81 – 68 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#175) | -6.8 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#187) | -1.51 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#187) | -3.09 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#204) | 0.410 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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