Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +188 SPU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -7.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -7.6 (-5.4) | 128.5 (+20.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -8.2 (-4.8) | 125.8 (+23.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -7.6 (-5.4) | 127.5 (+21.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -8.3 (-4.7) | 126.8 (+22.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 3-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#337) | -0.3 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#310) | 0.27 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#334) | 0.46 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#276) | 0.508 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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