Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CCSU -440 SFPA +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -11.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -10.8 (-5.8) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -9.0 (-4.0) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -10.3 (-5.3) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -10.0 (-5.0) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#290) | -16.5 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#253) | -2.89 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#281) | -3.78 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#241) | 0.405 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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