Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -900 SFPA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -12.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -11.7 (+4.3) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -11.5 (+4.5) | 134.9 (+15.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -11.7 (+4.3) | 133.9 (+16.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -11.0 (+5.0) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 12-3 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#177) | -10.3 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#149) | -1.68 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | -2.11 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.445 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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