Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +225 CCSU -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +8 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -10.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+42.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -9.2 (+1.2) | 140.1 (+47.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -9.5 (+1.5) | 138.8 (+49.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -7.8 (-0.2) | 141.3 (+46.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -8.9 (+0.9) | 140.6 (+47.4) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -18.2 (#360) | -4.3 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#346) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#353) | -0.73 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#342) | 0.492 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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