Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +210 CCSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -4.3 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -5.2 (-9.8) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -5.7 (-9.3) | 139.3 (-6.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -5.7 (-9.3) | 138.6 (-5.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -5.5 (-9.5) | 139.4 (-6.4) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-13 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#318) | -1.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#256) | 0.98 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#259) | 0.74 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#189) | 0.574 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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