Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -205 GTWN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +7 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -2.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.0 (+3.0) | 151.8 (+23.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.7 (+3.3) | 149.5 (+25.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.5 (+3.5) | 150.8 (+24.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.1 (+3.9) | 153.1 (+21.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
| Jan 19, 2024 | XAV 92 – 91 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#99) | 5.8 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#93) | 0.91 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#85) | 1.39 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#153) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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