Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +250 XAV -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -8.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+37.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -8.1 (+3.1) | 151.6 (+39.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.4 (+3.4) | 152.7 (+38.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -7.4 (+2.4) | 150.5 (+40.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.5 (+2.5) | 151.2 (+39.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Jan 19, 2024 | XAV 92 – 91 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-12 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#184) | 9.9 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#235) | 1.06 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#205) | 1.78 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#283) | 0.541 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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