Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -218 XAV +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -4.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -3.5 (-6.5) | 149.9 (+7.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -3.6 (-6.6) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -3.4 (-6.4) | 147.5 (+9.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -3.8 (-6.8) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
| Jan 19, 2024 | XAV 92 – 91 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#136) | 2.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#68) | 0.50 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#75) | 0.73 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#86) | 0.525 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 2.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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