Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -425 GTWN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -8.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.0 (-2.0) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -7.9 (-2.9) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.9 (-1.9) | 137.3 (+5.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.9 (-1.9) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
| Jan 19, 2024 | XAV 92 – 91 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#49) | 6.8 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#63) | 1.04 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#58) | 1.23 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.524 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.