Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -1000 GTWN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+36.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -13.7 (-12.7) | 142.9 (+40.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -14.6 (-13.6) | 147.2 (+35.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -12.9 (-11.9) | 143.6 (+39.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -13.3 (-12.3) | 142.7 (+40.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-12 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#31) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#88) | -0.19 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#51) | 0.15 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#56) | 0.472 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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