Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -125 XAV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -0.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -1.5 (+4.5) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -0.6 (+5.4) | 142.0 (-10.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -1.8 (+4.2) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -2.5 (+3.5) | 144.7 (-12.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
| Jan 19, 2024 | XAV 92 – 91 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 11.2 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#69) | 1.24 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#86) | 2.10 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#75) | 0.523 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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