Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BELL +185 APSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +14 | 208 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -5.5 (+19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+51.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.9 (+18.9) | 151.0 (+57.0) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.3 (+18.3) | 151.0 (+57.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.7 (+18.7) | 153.1 (+54.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -4.9 (+18.9) | 152.1 (+55.9) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | APSU 90 – 70 BELL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | BELL 94 – 68 APSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | APSU 86 – 77 BELL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | APSU 90 – 87 BELL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | APSU 84 – 68 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#287) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#303) | 0.50 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#292) | 0.37 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#322) | 0.541 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 26.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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