Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BELL +170 APSU -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +26 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -4.6 (+30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -4.8 (+30.8) | 146.9 (+15.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -5.5 (+31.5) | 146.4 (+15.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -3.1 (+29.1) | 144.8 (+17.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.2 (+31.2) | 145.1 (+16.9) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BELL 111 – 97 APSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | APSU 90 – 70 BELL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | APSU 86 – 77 BELL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | APSU 90 – 87 BELL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | APSU 84 – 68 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-16 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#353) | -6.5 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.11 (#361) | -0.79 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.64 (#361) | -1.04 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.339 (#363) | 0.465 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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