Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -400 BELL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -11.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -9.3 (-0.3) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -9.2 (-0.2) | 142.4 (+20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -9.5 (-0.5) | 144.4 (+18.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -9.9 (-0.9) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BELL 111 – 97 APSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | APSU 90 – 70 BELL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | BELL 94 – 68 APSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | APSU 90 – 87 BELL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | APSU 84 – 68 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-13 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#290) | -15.6 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#252) | -3.89 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#252) | -4.43 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.338 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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