Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -400 BELL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -9.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+40.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -7.6 (-4.6) | 141.1 (+35.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -9.2 (-6.2) | 143.5 (+33.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -6.7 (-3.7) | 138.8 (+38.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -8.2 (-5.2) | 140.3 (+36.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BELL 111 – 97 APSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | APSU 90 – 70 BELL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | BELL 94 – 68 APSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | APSU 86 – 77 BELL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | APSU 84 – 68 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 4-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#222) | -9.5 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#205) | -1.78 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | -2.15 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#175) | 0.417 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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