Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB -1200 MVSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -16.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -13.1 (-14.1) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UAPB -12.6 (-13.6) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UAPB -13.0 (-14.0) | 144.7 (-5.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -13.0 (-14.0) | 147.0 (-8.0) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UAPB 83 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-14 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#334) | -26.2 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#268) | -4.27 (#365) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#299) | -5.97 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#242) | 0.331 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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