Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -1400 MVSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -10.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -8.6 (-11.6) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -9.8 (-12.8) | 144.2 (+10.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -7.3 (-10.3) | 138.9 (+16.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -8.4 (-11.4) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UAPB 83 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 1-17 |
| Home | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Away | 2-17 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -22.0 (#363) | -29.6 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.32 (#363) | -5.19 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.30 (#362) | -6.95 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#364) | 0.358 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 26.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.9% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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