Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +400 UAPB -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +25 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -6.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -6.5 (-18.5) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -6.8 (-18.2) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -5.5 (-19.5) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -5.4 (-19.6) | 137.4 (+3.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UAPB 83 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 3-15 |
| Home | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Away | 1-19 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 52.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -31.3 (#364) | -22.0 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.81 (#364) | -4.08 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.16 (#364) | -5.11 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#359) | 0.336 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.46 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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