Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -900 MVSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -14.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -11.7 (-2.7) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -10.4 (-1.4) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -11.1 (-2.1) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -10.4 (-1.4) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UAPB 83 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-6 | 1-8 |
| Away | 5-12 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#337) | -24.1 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#316) | -4.02 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#325) | -4.88 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#310) | 0.367 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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