Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +350 UAPB -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -11.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -10.1 (+2.1) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -8.7 (+0.7) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -10.7 (+2.7) | 139.2 (+8.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -11.1 (+3.1) | 136.5 (+11.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UAPB 83 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Away | 1-18 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -25.9 (#365) | -11.4 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#365) | -1.11 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.90 (#365) | -1.87 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#364) | 0.466 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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