Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +450 UAPB -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -8.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -9.2 (+3.2) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -8.8 (+2.8) | 146.2 (+13.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -8.8 (+2.8) | 146.1 (+13.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -9.6 (+3.6) | 147.8 (+12.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-30 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 1-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 0-22 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 55.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -24.1 (#363) | -12.1 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.66 (#362) | -1.35 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.33 (#363) | -1.92 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#358) | 0.442 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 25.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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