Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HCU +320 SFA -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +21 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -10.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.4 (-12.6) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.4 (-11.6) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -8.4 (-12.6) | 133.4 (-0.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.6 (-10.4) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | SFA 85 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | HCU 72 – 56 SFA |
| Jan 7, 2025 | HCU 83 – 73 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 20-2 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-14 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#288) | 5.8 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#300) | 1.33 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#308) | 1.76 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#316) | 0.544 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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